Taking a more targeted, proactive approach to prevention to transform how we support older people  

We’ve all heard the sobering statistics: care needs among those aged 65+ are projected to rise by 80% over the next two decades, while 81% of councils expected to overspend their adult social care budgets in 2024/25. The current trajectory is simply unsustainable, for both local authorities and the residents they support. 

But evidence emerging from across the sector suggests that there’s a proven way forward that’s already delivering remarkable results to help address this challenge. What if we could reduce fractures resulting from falls by 88%, cut GP visits by 47%, and improve wellbeing for 71% of participants – all while saving money? 

This isn’t wishful thinking. It’s starting to happen already in local areas which are using a targeted approach to prevention.  Now, to build on this foundation and to help scale up these benefits nationally, the Future of Prevention programme has been established by Partners in Care and Health, Newton and Atlantic, working with 20 local authorities, to prove that targeted, proactive prevention can transform both outcomes and finances in adult social care. 

Here’s the compelling financial reality: research for the Local Government Association has shown that for every £1 invested in preventative support, councils can save £3.17 in future social care costs. Evidence from Norfolk County Council perfectly illustrates this – their targeted approach to preventing falls has led to average savings of £175 per person per week, with projected annual savings of £4-8 million. 

But the real story isn’t just about the numbers – it’s about Mrs. Johnson continuing to live independently in her own home, maintaining her social connections and dignity. It’s about families not experiencing the trauma of emergency hospital visits. It’s about our communities thriving rather than merely surviving. 

As Social Care Future puts it, “We all want to live in the place we call home, with the people and things that we love, in communities where we look out for one another, doing the things that matter to us.” This isn’t just a nice sentiment – it’s the north star for the transformation of adult social care. 

We know that intervening earlier can help to achieve this goal and prevent people from reaching a point of crisis, but we also know that there are several common barriers which make it hard for authorities to take a more preventative approach: in particular, managing financial pressures, quantifying benefits, and having clarity on implementation best practice.  

In an environment of ever tighter budgets, authorities need to know that they are directing their limited resources on the activities that will make the greatest difference. While all forms of prevention are valuable, targeted, proactive prevention is about identifying individuals at risk of crisis and intervening early with tailored support. This approach moves beyond reactive responses to deliver the right support, at the right time, in the right way – before needs escalate. 

The benefits of this approach go beyond adult social care. Evidence suggests that taking a more targeted approach to identifying individuals who would best benefit from preventative services not only improves outcomes for those individuals but also provides a holistic view of people at the highest risk who will be drawing on multiple services and who therefore might require additional focus and support. In doing so, this approach also has the potential to highlight opportunities for public services to interact with residents in a different way so that they benefit from a more holistic approach, preventing future crises in all aspects of their lives rather than reactively respond to individual moments of crisis. 

These are exactly the challenges the authorities participating in the Future of Prevention programme sought to address through the delivery toolkit that it has developed for all local authorities nationally.  

The authorities we worked with have created both a delivery model and an evaluation framework that addresses our sector’s greatest challenge: building a robust evidence base for prevention. Rather than relying on anecdotal evidence, we now have structured approaches to measuring both quality-of-life improvements and system benefits. 

This isn’t about finding more money – it’s about using existing resources more intelligently. It’s about shifting from reactive crisis management to proactive prevention through proven, implementable strategies. 

The government’s commitment to a ‘prevention first revolution’ creates unprecedented alignment between achieving better outcomes with people, policy, and financial reality. We have the evidence, the tools, and the political backing. What we need now is the courage to act. 

The Future of Prevention toolkit is available at www.futureofprevention.com, providing comprehensive guidance for any authority ready to begin this transformation. The question isn’t whether we can afford to invest in prevention – it’s whether we can afford not to.