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Just over 12 months ago, Newton published the Re-Energising Offshore Wind report, in collaboration with FT Longitude. The report was a result of a survey of 200 senior offshore wind industry leaders which reported that whilst 80% believed that the UK can achieve 30GW by 2030, only 4% expected the UK to reach its national target of 50GW. This led us to set out five cross-cutting recommendations. In this follow-up, we look at key progress in the UK offshore wind industry since we published the report.
2024 was a landmark year for offshore wind. The new Government set the aim for 95 percent clean power generation by 2030; the recently established NESO published the roadmap in the Clean Power 2030 report, affirming offshore wind’s role as the ‘bedrock’ of that ambition; offshore wind became the UK’s largest source of electricity generation at 30% of supply.
Following the failure of AR5, in which no offshore wind farms bid, our report emphasised that existing project commitments may be at risk in a less profitable environment, warranting the Government taking stronger actions to incentivise continuing offshore wind development. With the raise in administrative strike prices and increased budgets across wind generation, AR6 represented significant progress: 3.7GW of additional offshore wind capacity2 and the first floating offshore wind farm, Green Volt, were awarded a Contract for Difference (CfD).
Nonetheless, achieving 50GW by 2030 remains a distant prospect. The UK currently has 15GW of offshore wind capacity and our pipeline analysis sees this increasing to only 39GW of capacity in 2030, even if all the current projects deliver as planned in the next five years. This means we require pipeline expansion, and our report highlighted the important role oil & gas will play reallocating skilled resource into the offshore wind industry. Unfortunately, 2024 has seen the retreat of oil majors, such as Shell and BP, from new renewables projects in the UK.
AR7 in 2025 will therefore be a make-or-break moment in securing additional offshore wind capacity for the Clean Power by 2030 aspiration. Energy UK estimated that AR6 and AR7 together would need to secure an additional 21GW of offshore wind capacity. However, Regen has only identified 8-12GW of CfD-ready fixed offshore wind projects that could potentially bid in AR7 leaving a significant capacity shortfall of up to 7.3GW.
Achieving the government’s Clean Power 2030 ambition requires acceleration of the current pipeline – our analysis shows that the UK is currently on track to hit the 43GW required in NESO’s ‘New Dispatch’ pathway in 2031, a year later than the target. This means that not only must the offshore wind industry deliver existing projects on time, but also that industry and government need to actively accelerate developments whilst maintaining manufacturing quality. It will not be an easy task.
We, as a strategic delivery partner with extensive experience in Capital Delivery, Asset Management & Capability Development, are ready to help the offshore wind industry evolve to achieve this important national endeavour.
Please reach out to David Hart using the link below for more on how Newton can support in offshore wind.
References:
- https://www.gov.uk/missions/clean-energy
- https://www.neso.energy/publications/clean-power-2030
- https://www.ft.com/content/721c8c1c-9e27-4b32-af16-03d759b1d1a5
- https://www.ft.com/content/cc195ed5-badc-455b-9e60-a1d4b88cfb76
- https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publications/energy-uk-explains-how-much-renewable-energy-can-we-expect-from-allocation-round-6/
- https://www.regen.co.uk/cfd-ar6-analysis-offshore-energy/
- https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ge-vernova-says-manufacturing-issue-led-vineyard-turbine-blade-failure-2024-07-24/